When Process Fails: Why Bad Decisions Lead to Worse Wars
13/04/25 08:56
Why do smart people in powerful positions make disastrously poor foreign policy decisions? And why do wars—like Iraq—get launched on shaky assumptions, faulty intelligence, and unrealistic expectations?
At The Security Nexus, we examine the anatomy of strategic failure—and we believe it starts long before the first shot is fired.
🧠 Decision-Making Is Strategy
Recent research shows that how decisions are made—the process—often shapes outcomes more than even the policies themselves. The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq is a prime example. Despite warnings from intelligence officials and analysts, the Bush administration marginalized dissenting voices. A tightly controlled, hierarchical management style led to “anticipatory compliance,” where advisors told the President what they believed he wanted to hear. Bureaucratic politics, not facts, drove policy.
The result? A flawed war plan and an even more catastrophic post-war occupation.
📊 What the Data Says
Mark Schafer and Scott Crichlow’s groundbreaking study found that decision-making processes really do matter. In a quantitative review of 31 major foreign policy decisions, they discovered that structural group factors and information processing quality were directly tied to better national outcomes. In other words, open discussion, debate, and good internal processes help prevent disaster. Intuition alone won’t cut it.
🇨🇳 Lessons from China
But it’s not just a Western problem. Tyler Jost’s research on Chinese foreign policy missteps reveals how siloed and fragmented national security institutions increase the risk of miscalculation. When advisors can’t—or won’t—share information across departments, leaders make choices based on distorted or incomplete data. That’s how avoidable crises spiral into regional instability.
🧩 The Big Picture
From Washington to Beijing, the lesson is the same: How you make decisions determines whether you succeed or fail.
At The Security Nexus, we aim to bridge academic research and real-world application. Understanding decision-making dynamics isn’t just for scholars—it’s vital for practitioners, policymakers, and citizens alike.
🔐 Stay tuned as we explore how better processes can lead to better policy—and why getting it wrong can lead us straight into conflict.
At The Security Nexus, we examine the anatomy of strategic failure—and we believe it starts long before the first shot is fired.
🧠 Decision-Making Is Strategy
Recent research shows that how decisions are made—the process—often shapes outcomes more than even the policies themselves. The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq is a prime example. Despite warnings from intelligence officials and analysts, the Bush administration marginalized dissenting voices. A tightly controlled, hierarchical management style led to “anticipatory compliance,” where advisors told the President what they believed he wanted to hear. Bureaucratic politics, not facts, drove policy.
The result? A flawed war plan and an even more catastrophic post-war occupation.
📊 What the Data Says
Mark Schafer and Scott Crichlow’s groundbreaking study found that decision-making processes really do matter. In a quantitative review of 31 major foreign policy decisions, they discovered that structural group factors and information processing quality were directly tied to better national outcomes. In other words, open discussion, debate, and good internal processes help prevent disaster. Intuition alone won’t cut it.
🇨🇳 Lessons from China
But it’s not just a Western problem. Tyler Jost’s research on Chinese foreign policy missteps reveals how siloed and fragmented national security institutions increase the risk of miscalculation. When advisors can’t—or won’t—share information across departments, leaders make choices based on distorted or incomplete data. That’s how avoidable crises spiral into regional instability.
🧩 The Big Picture
From Washington to Beijing, the lesson is the same: How you make decisions determines whether you succeed or fail.
At The Security Nexus, we aim to bridge academic research and real-world application. Understanding decision-making dynamics isn’t just for scholars—it’s vital for practitioners, policymakers, and citizens alike.
🔐 Stay tuned as we explore how better processes can lead to better policy—and why getting it wrong can lead us straight into conflict.