Can Cyber Attacks Force Concessions? Rethinking Digital Coercion
05/04/25 15:27
In today’s hyperconnected world, cyber incidents have emerged as a quiet but powerful tool of statecraft. But can a digital intrusion actually force a nation to change course?
At The Security Nexus, we’re diving into just that.
Our latest research challenges the common belief that cyberattacks only provoke defiance. Using data from over 400 state-to-state cyber incidents, we found that as the severity of a cyber incident increases, so does the likelihood that the targeted state offers concessions—even if just slightly. The more disruptive or damaging the incident, the higher the chances the target gives ground.
Interestingly, not all methods are equal. Attacks involving Trojans or network infiltration tend to decrease the chance of concessions. But indirect, immediate disruptions—like coordinated info ops—have a more persuasive effect.
This tells us something critical: Cyber operations aren’t just digital chaos—they’re strategic tools with real diplomatic impact.
Want to dive deeper? Stay tuned for more insights as we break down how cyber coercion is reshaping conflict and diplomacy in the digital era.
The Security Nexus: Illuminating the digital battlespace.
At The Security Nexus, we’re diving into just that.
Our latest research challenges the common belief that cyberattacks only provoke defiance. Using data from over 400 state-to-state cyber incidents, we found that as the severity of a cyber incident increases, so does the likelihood that the targeted state offers concessions—even if just slightly. The more disruptive or damaging the incident, the higher the chances the target gives ground.
Interestingly, not all methods are equal. Attacks involving Trojans or network infiltration tend to decrease the chance of concessions. But indirect, immediate disruptions—like coordinated info ops—have a more persuasive effect.
This tells us something critical: Cyber operations aren’t just digital chaos—they’re strategic tools with real diplomatic impact.
Want to dive deeper? Stay tuned for more insights as we break down how cyber coercion is reshaping conflict and diplomacy in the digital era.
The Security Nexus: Illuminating the digital battlespace.